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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The U.S. government shutdown ushered in a turning point, and the "hawks and pigeons are still dancing" inside the Federal Reserve." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 11, in early Asian trading on Tuesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.64. On Monday, as signs that the U.S. government may resume operations boosted market risk sentiment, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated below the 100 mark and finally closed up 0.06% at 99.59; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closed at 4.121%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.601%. Spot gold rebounded sharply, rising by more than $100 during the day, and returned to above $4,110, setting a new high in more than two weeks. It finally closed up 2.85% at $4,115.62 per ounce; spot silver returned above the $50 mark, and finally closed up 4.45% at $50.49 per ounce. Crude oil closed slightly higher. WTI crude oil once fell to an intraday low of $59.50 during the U.S. trading session, and then recovered most of its losses during the day and turned higher, returning to above $60. It finally closed up 0.3% at $60.14/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.43% at $63.81/barrel.
U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.64. Market sentiment and policy signals are intertwined, putting the dollar at a critical node for repricing: on the one hand, Fed officials have shown greater symmetry and patience, and inflation expectations are described as "relatively anchored"; on the other hand, the slowdown in the labor market and uncertainty about tariff issues have added to the outlook for demand and prices.new variables. Against this background, the core contradiction of the US dollar index still points to the tug-of-war between the interest rate path and risk appetite. Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index is trying to close above the 50 EMA at 99.75. If this attempt is successful, the USD Index will move towards the resistance levels of 100.00–100.15. A break above the 100.15 level will push the USD Index towards resistance levels at 101.85–102.00.
In the Asian market on Tuesday, gold hovered around 4126.69. The precious metal edged higher after hitting a two-week high in the previous session amid the prospect of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and a weaker U.S. dollar (USD). Later on Tuesday, the U.S. ADP weekly report on employment changes will be in focus. Gold's gains were supported by growing expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut next month after private jobs and consumer reports last week showed signs of an economic slowdown. According to the CMEFedWatch tool, the market currently predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December is close to 67%, and the probability of a rate cut in January will rise to about 80%. Lower interest rates could lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
On Tuesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 59.89. Oil prices ended modestly higher on Monday, with the market showing a supply-demand game. Tight supply of refined oil pushed up prices, while concerns about oversupply of crude oil limited gains. Traders are closely watching the progress of the shutdown agreement, but weak demand signals and rising inventories are still suppressing oil prices. The market has not yet formed a clear trend and needs to remain flexible.
Foreign exchange market trading reminder on November 11, 2025
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