The temporary appropriation bill is about to pass the House of Representatives. Is the U.S. labor market still deteriorating?

On November 12, in early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.48. On Tuesday, as the market was worried about the deterioration of the U.S. labor market, the U.S. dollar index continued to decline and plunged sharply before the U.S. market. However, it recovered some of its losses during the U.S. market and finally closed down 0.12% at 99.48; U.S. debt markets were closed for one day due to Veterans Day. Spot gold approached the US$4,150 mark many times during the session, hitting a new high in the past three weeks, but failed to reach here. Instead, it gave up some of its gains and finally closed up 0.26% at US$4,126.36 per ounce. Spot silver stood firmly above the US$50 mark, and finally closed up 1.4% at US$51.20 per ounce. Crude oil fell first and then rose. WTI crude oil started to rise during the European trading session. It once reached above US$61 during the session and finally closed up 1.72% at US$60.96/barrel. Brent crude oil finally closed up 1.79% at US$64.89/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.48. As employment data weakens and expectations of a Fed rate cut increase, the dollar may struggle to regain its upward momentum if upcoming government data fails to deliver a bullish surprise. Technically, if the dollar index remains below the 99.50 level, it will head towards the support level of 98.85–99.00.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1583. A survey by Germany's ZEW in November showed that despiteThe current situation has improved less than expected, but German investors are pessimistic about the economic outlook. Across the EU, the index improved beyond expectations. Technically, a successful test of the resistance at 1.1585–1.1600 would open the way to a test of the next resistance at 1.1655–1.1670.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3144. GBP/USD faced fresh bearish challenge on Tuesday, hitting a snag and ending a four-day winning streak. The pair remains capped south of the 1.3200 mark, with GBP traders needing a fresh shock to push GBP (GBP) buying back higher. Technically, the RSI is in moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum in the short term.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Wednesday, gold hovered around 4138.96. Precious metals gained momentum amid further bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before the end of the year. Traders will be closely watching the Fed's speech later on Wednesday. The Fed's John Williams, Anna Paulson, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Stephen Millan and Susan Collins are scheduled to speak.

Technical aspect: From the gold daily chart, the technical aspect of gold is still bullish, but the upward trend has stagnated, and currently forms a cross star pattern, indicating that the power of buyers and sellers is not dominant. From a momentum perspective, the relative strength index (RSI) shows that gold prices still have room to rise further. If gold prices break above $4,160/oz, the next level of resistance will be the October 22 high of $4,161/oz, followed by $4,200/oz.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Wednesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 60.91. Oil prices rose on Tuesday, boosted by new U.S. sanctions on Russia and hopes of an end to the U.S. government shutdown, but gains were limited by concerns about oversupply. Investors need to pay attention to news related to the U.S. government shutdown. In addition, New York Fed President Williams, Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, Fed Governor Waller, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, and Boston Fed President Collins will each deliver speeches this trading day. Investors need to pay attention.

Technical aspect: Oil prices are running in the upper half of the box and are at 59.40Above the support, but since oil prices have tested 59.40 for three consecutive days without falling below, bulls should launch an attack here. If oil prices continue to be close to 59.40, this support may be broken. The current support levels are still 59.40 and 58.48, and the pressure level is 61.30. At the same time, due to the impact of month shifting, the main focus is on the US crude oil January futures contract.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on November 12, 2025

Pending OPEC monthly crude oil market report

22:20 Fed Williams delivers a speech

23:00 Fed Paulson delivers a speech

23:20 Fed Governor Waller attends the meeting

23:45 U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent delivered a speech

The next day at 01:00 the EIA released its monthly short-term energy outlook report

The next day at 01:15 the Federal Reserve Bostic gave a speech

The next day at 01:30 Federal Reserve Governor Milan attended the event

The next day at 02:00 the United States arrived 10-year Treasury bond auction on November 12 - winning interest rate

From 02:00 the next day to 10-year Treasury bond auction on November 12 - bid multiples

At 02:30 the next day the Bank of Canada released the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting

At 05:00 the next day the Federal Reserve Collins issued an outlook on the economic and financial situation Speech

API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to November 7 at 05:30 the next day

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