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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: Global inflation shows differentiation, analysis of short-term trend of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 12". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures all rose, with the Dow futures rising 0.15%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.32%, and the Nasdaq futures rising 0.58%. Germany's DAX index rose by 1.08%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.11%, France's CAC40 index rose by 1.03%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.06%.
⑴ U.S. CPI inflation rose slightly to 3.0% in September, with the energy www.uniff.orgponent rising 2.8% year-on-year as the main driving factor. ⑵The core inflation indicator fell slightly to 3.0%, indicating that internal price pressures have eased. ⑶ Wage growth continues to decelerate, and household one-year inflation expectations have dropped significantly from 6.6% in May to 4.6%. ⑷Although five-year inflation expectations remain at historically high levels, stabilizing price pressure indexes and slowing producer prices support the Fed's continued interest rate cuts. ⑸ Inflation expectations in the Eurozone are stable near the 2% target, providing favorable conditions for the normalization of central bank policies. ⑹ British inflation remains stable and wage growth slows, reducing pressure on the Bank of England to tighten further. ⑺Inflation in Japan has picked up but producer prices have fallen. The divergence of different price indicators has made policy decisions more www.uniff.orgplicated.
Independent economist Phil Suttle pointed out that the current U.S. economy is showing obvious signs of imbalance: On the one hand, as the third quarter earnings season www.uniff.orges to an end, dataCorporate earnings appear to be booming; on the other hand, consumer surveys and some economic indicators paint a bleaker picture. Suttle believes the disconnect may stem from a timing difference - third-quarter corporate earnings reflect the period from July to September, while consumer fatigue is only emerging in more recent data. He further analyzed that this may also reveal the differentiation between different economic groups: "The current situation of large U.S. www.uniff.orgpanies has improved significantly www.uniff.orgpared with small www.uniff.orgpanies and ordinary consumers."
Data show that Hungarian government bond yields have surpassed Romania and become the highest in the EU. The change www.uniff.orges after his government announced a spending plan aimed at widening the budget deficit, which sent shockwaves through markets. On Wednesday, Hungary's ten-year local currency bond yield rose 9 basis points, breaking through the 7% mark, bringing the cumulative increase this week to nearly 20 basis points. At the same time, Romanian bond yields fell slightly to 6.96% during the same period. Market analysts pointed out that the Orban government's move is intended to reverse the decline in its support before next year's election by increasing spending. Chris Turner, a strategist at ING, said that while the recent lower-than-expected inflation data might have signaled a dovish interest rate move, this positive was "quickly overshadowed by the government's announcement of an increase in the public finance deficit."
⑴British government bonds performed weakly in the European market, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.7 basis points and the 2-year yield rising by 1.7 basis points. ⑵ Rumors that Prime Minister Starmer may face a coup within the Labor Party are the main factor driving up yields, but the market reaction is relatively mild. ⑶Potential successor Wes Streeting has denied related accusations, but political uncertainty still envelopes the market. ⑷The current bond market volatility is far less dramatic than the violent reaction in the summer when rumors of "the finance minister being removed" were reported, when soaring yields strengthened Reeves' position. ⑸ A mild market reaction may embolden challengers, while the calm attitude of the bond market weakens the deterrent power of the current leadership. ⑹Starmer and Reeves' leftward fiscal policy has been digested by the market. Although tax increases may suppress growth, they will help build a structural budget surplus. ⑺Political chaos once again threatens British stability, and the delicate balance between fiscal discipline and political survival is facing a severe test.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Sveridenko posted on social media on the 12th that the Ukrainian cabinet held a special meeting that morning and decided to dismiss Herman Galushenko, the Justice Minister suspected of corruption. Sveridenko said that in accordance with the resolution of the Ukrainian Cabinet, Deputy Minister of Justice Lyudmila Sujak will act as Minister of Justice. Public information shows that Galushenko is 52 years old. He served as Ukraine’s Minister of Energy from April 2021 to July this year. He had previously served in the Lviv Prosecutor’s Office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,He serves in many departments including the Presidential Secretariat of Ukraine.
According to people familiar with the matter, multiple EU member states are jointly pushing for a one-year delay in the implementation of the landmark "Deforestation Regulations." At a recent ambassadorial-level meeting in Brussels, representatives from various countries expressed support for an extension to buy more time than originally planned to meet www.uniff.orgpliance requirements. The bill, which aims to curb deforestation related to key www.uniff.orgmodities such as soybeans, coffee, cocoa and palm oil imported into the EU, was originally scheduled to www.uniff.orge into effect at the end of this year. However, the law has been widely criticized both inside and outside the EU since its introduction for being overly www.uniff.orgplex and bureaucratic.
According to US media reports, US President Trump has sent a letter to Israeli President Herzog urging him to exercise legal pardon power against Prime Minister Netanyahu who is facing three charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Although Trump has publicly called for Netanyahu to be pardoned many times before, this is the first direct letter to be exposed. The move sparked strong criticism in Israel. Francis Lardy, a law professor who was involved in the proceedings before the Israeli Supreme Court, noted that this act "shows great disrespect for the Israeli judicial system." Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader, needs to call elections within next year. Under Israeli law, if a prime minister is found guilty of a crime involving "moral turpitude" and all appeals have been exhausted, his term is automatically terminated and the government is placed in a caretaker state until a new government takes office.
It is reported that the United States is currently considering building a military base along the border with the Gaza Strip that can accommodate thousands of soldiers. Israel said the military facility cost as much as $500 million. Many Palestinian officials warned that this kind of US approach is equivalent to replacing the Israeli troops occupying the Gaza Strip with other foreign troops. Moussa Abu Marzouk, a member of the Hamas Politburo, also recently stated that Hamas firmly does not accept the possibility of deploying foreign troops to the Gaza Strip, saying that this would be equivalent to replacing Gaza with an occupying power.
On November 12, Bulgaria’s Energy Minister Stankov stated in a speech in parliament that Bulgaria’s gasoline reserves can be used for about 6 months, diesel reserves can be used for about 4 months, and aviation oil reserves can be used for about 2 months. The fuel is stored in tax warehouses for domestic use only and is not exported. He said some members of Congress and political analysts were trying to spread fear (of fuel shortages) among the people. The day before, Arsen Asenov, chairman of the Bulgarian National Reserve and War Stockpile Agency, revealed that the currently available gasoline in Bulgaria is only enough to last about a month. In order to pressure Russia and Ukraine to immediately cease fire, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions on Russia on October 22.The sanctions against state-owned Rosneft and privately held Lukoil are scheduled to take effect on November 21. Burgas Refinery is Bulgaria's largest refinery and one of Lukoil's important overseas assets. This sanction has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life in Bulgaria.
⑴ The Brazilian Central Bank confirmed in the latest financial stability report that the country’s credit risk has increased significantly and will continue to be under pressure in the short term. ⑵ The scale of problem assets has increased in almost all household loan fields, indicating a general deterioration in residents' solvency. ⑶ The quality of loans to small and micro enterprises has declined simultaneously, and this trend is expected to continue to spread in the "near future". ⑷The tightening credit environment is forming a negative cycle, and the decline in risk appetite of financial institutions may further inhibit economic vitality. ⑸ The central bank’s early warning level for systemic risks has increased, and macro-prudential policies are facing new tests. ⑹ It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the provision coverage ratio of the Brazilian banking industry. The pressure to dispose of non-performing assets may affect the ability to extend credit. ⑺The financial fragility of emerging markets has once again become prominent, and global capital flows are becoming more sensitive to risk pricing.
On the 12th, a South Korean court fined former President Yoon Seok-yue and issued a detention warrant for refusing to appear in court to testify. According to reports, the 33rd Collegiate Court of the Criminal Trial of the Seoul Central District Court opened a hearing on the same day to hear the criminal case of former Prime Minister Han Byul-soo for allegedly assisting the leader of the civil strife. The court had asked Yoon Seok-yue and former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun to appear in court to testify, but the two submitted statements on the 10th and were absent from the court hearing. The court held that there was no valid reason for refusing to appear in court, and fined the two men 5 million won (approximately RMB 24,000) and issued a detention warrant. The court will summon Kim Yong-hyun and Yin Xiyue for witness examination at 2 pm and 4 pm respectively on the 19th. In addition, the court will interrogate Han Byul-soo on the 24th, hold the last court hearing on the 26th, and pronounce the verdict on January 21st or 28th next year.
⑴ Germany’s exports to 29 countries in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia increased by 2.35% in the first nine months to 216 billion euros, becoming a bright spot in the weak trade pattern. ⑵ During the same period, Germany's overall exports only increased slightly by 0.3%, and exports to the two traditional markets fell by 7.4% and 11.9% respectively. ⑶Poland and the Czech Republic have become the core driving forces in the region. These two markets alone contributed nearly 5.6 billion euros in export growth. ⑷ Affected by sanctions, trade with Russia and Belarus continues to shrink, and Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries also experienced significant declines. ⑸The total trade volume between Germany and the entire region increased by 2.9% year-on-year to approximately 413 billion euros, indicating that economic ties are deepening. ⑹Business groups urgently call on the EU to expand regional economic relations and systematically remove trade barriers to deal with Sino-US www.uniff.orgpetition. ⑺The global gateway infrastructure plan is regarded as a key tool to prevent growth markets from being dominated by www.uniff.orgpetitors.
⑴ The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fluctuated between 4.095% and 4.069%, and the market remained cautious ahead of the issuance of US$42 billion in new bonds. ⑵ The yield curve showed a flattening trend, with the 2s/10s spread closing at 52.7 basis points and the 5s/30s spread at 101.4 basis points. ⑶ Futures trading volume is lower than the recent average, indicating that investors tend to maintain a wait-and-see attitude before major events. ⑷ Disagreements within the Federal Reserve on the issue of interest rate cuts in December have intensified, and the October meeting has already revealed a fierce game between hawks and doves. ⑸ There are signs of cooling in the job market. Large www.uniff.orgpanies plan to significantly reduce seasonal recruitment, and consumption momentum is facing a test. ⑹ The economic data gap caused by the government shutdown continues, and policymakers are faced with the decision-making dilemma of "data fog". ⑺ Six Federal Reserve officials will give speeches one after another today, and the market will look for the latest clues on the path of monetary policy.
EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1573, a decrease of 0.08%. Before the New York session, the price of EURUSD declined in the last trading session due to the stabilization of the key resistance of 1.1595. After reaching overbought levels, negative signals appeared on the relative strength indicator in an attempt to gain bullish momentum, which may help it break above this resistance on a continuation of the dynamic support represented by the exchange above the EMA50 and be in the driver's seat of a bullish correction wave on a short-term basis.
GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3110, a decrease of 0.30%. Pre-market in New York, (GBPUSD) price was last trading lower from intraday levels, trying to gain some bullish momentum that might help it recover and rise again, and trying to unload its overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, especially with the emergence of negative overlapping signals, the persistence of dynamic support represented by the exchange above the EMA50, and the dominance of a bullish corrective wave on a short-term basis.
Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 4125.55, a decrease of 0.04%. In the New York pre-market, (gold) prices were trading around last session's levels to gain bullish momentum that may help it recover and rise again, while trading along a secondary bullish trendline on a short-term basis, with the dynamic support represented by its trading above the EMA50 continuing, in addition to a positive overlapping signal on the relative strength indicator after reaching exaggerated oversold levels www.uniff.orgpared to the price action.
Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now trading at 51.556, an increase of 0.71%. Before the New York market opened, the (silver) price expanded its gains on the last trading day, breaking through the current 51. Resistance at $25 takes advantage of positive support from trading above the EMA50, in addition to positive signals from the relative strength indicator, and a slight bullish trend line has emerged in the short term despite reaching overbought levels.
Crude oil market: As of 21:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now trading at 60.240, a decrease of 1.29%. Before the New York market opened, (crude oil) prices fell in the last intraday transaction, trying to obtain gains that may help it recover and rise again. The bullish momentum is rising and trying to unload some overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, starting with the support of its EMA50, the major bullish correction trend prevails on a short-term basis and trading along the support trendline of this track.
⑴ Goldman Sachs economists said that the federal government shutdown has led to the delay of almost all economic data releases in September and October. ⑵ Although the government shutdown is about to end, the statistical agency processing. The backlog of data takes time. ⑶ If the government restarts before this weekend, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release October employment data early next week. ⑷ In addition to employment data, the release of other major economic data is expected to be delayed by "at least a week"
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