The chairman of the regional Federal Reserve suddenly retires, giving Trump another opportunity to intervene! Gold soared nearly $100 on the day

On November 13, in early Asian trading on Thursday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.56. On Wednesday, as traders assessed the impact that a large number of economic data releases would have on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy after the U.S. government resumes operations, the U.S. dollar index first rose and then fell, finally closing nearly flat at 99.46; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closed at 4.075%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy interest rate, closed at 3.576%; the U.S. dollar against the yen once stood at 155, the first time since February. Spot gold rose strongly during the U.S. trading session, rising nearly $100 during the day and once returning to above the 4,200 mark, but failed to stand firm here and finally closed up 1.65% at $4,194.40 per ounce; spot silver rose 4% to approach a record high, finally closing at $53.25 per ounce. Crude oil fell as OPEC released a report stating that global oil supply will be equal to demand in 2026, marking a further shift in its forecast from a supply shortage to a balance between supply and demand. WTI crude oil fluctuated downward throughout the day, and accelerated its decline before the U.S. market. It once fell to an intraday low of $58.28, and finally closed down 4.14%, at $58.44/barrel. In addition, the real-time price difference of WTI crude oil turned into a premium for the first time since February; Brent crude oil finally closed down 3.79%, at $62.43/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.56. The U.S. dollar has been under significant pressure recently, with the core pressure stemming from the weakness in the U.S. labor market and rising expectations of easing by the Federal Reserve. The continued shutdown of the U.S. government has led to the stagnant release of key economic data. The market has been in a data vacuum, and investors have been forced to turn around.Seeking guidance from Fed officials, the U.S. dollar index continued its correction since last week's high this week, providing phased support for the euro against the U.S. dollar. Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index’s reaction to the 99.463 pivot point may determine the next direction. A sustained move above 99.738 could open the door to a test of the 200-day moving average at 100.167, which recently rejected the bounce at 100.360. Conversely, a firm break below 99.287 could trigger a pullback towards the 50-day moving average of 98.481.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1580. The euro consolidated for a second day on the technical side, with the outlook for EUR/USD unchanged and the intraday bias remaining neutral as the U.S. government nears a reopening and risk appetite improves as the House votes on a stopgap financing bill. Further losses remain modestly favorable below the 55-day EMA (currently 1.1620). A break above the 1.1467 support will resume the decline from the 1.1917 support to the 1.1390 ​​support. However, continued trading above the 55-day EMA would see the decline from 1.1971 as merely a correction www.uniff.orgplete with further gains towards the 1.1727 resistance.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3116. Reports that Prime Minister Starmer may face a leadership challenge have stoked political tension ahead of the UK budget. UK employment data showed unemployment at 5% and wage growth slowing, raising the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December to 90%. Technically, GBP/USD is still hovering above 1.3008, with the intraday bias remaining neutral. More consolidation is likely to be seen, but further losses are expected as soon as the 1.3247 support turns into resistance. Targets above 1.3008 will predict 1.3787 to 1.3140 from 1.2831 from 1.3725. Nonetheless, a firm break above 1.3247 would indicate that the decline from 1.3787 has www.uniff.orgpleted the correction.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Thursday, gold hovered around 4202.80. Gold prices rose strongly on Wednesday, with spot gold hitting a new high since October 21, to $4,211.65 per ounce, driven by falling U.S. bond yields and increased expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. As the U.S. government is about to open its doors, suppressed economic data will be released one after another. These data are likely to confirm speculation about a slowdown in the U.S. economy and further strengthen the Federal Reserve's expectations for an interest rate cut.. In addition, we need to continue to pay attention to the speeches of Federal Reserve officials, and focus on the supplementary release arrangements for U.S. economic data such as non-farm payrolls that were previously suspended.

Technical: The next upside price objective for gold bulls is a close above strong resistance at $4,250.00. Bears' near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below strong technical support at $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,175.00, followed by $4,200.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,104.40, followed by $4,100.00.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Thursday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 58.31. Oil prices fell more than 4% on Wednesday, mainly affected by a report released by OPEC predicting that global oil supply will be equal to demand in 2026, which marks a further shift in its forecast from supply shortage to supply and demand balance. On the other hand, analysts believe that the U.S. government's resumption of operations may boost consumer confidence and economic activity, thereby stimulating crude oil demand. The market is paying close attention to the outlook report to be released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday for more guidance on market direction.

Technical: The 50-day moving average remains the key resistance level. A decisive breakout would be a bullish signal. If it can continue to stand higher, it may open up space to quickly rush to the October 24 high of $62.59, with the subsequent target of $63.74, the 50% of the long-term correction. The support levels below are densely distributed, with the initial support at $60.05, and the more critical support range is the callback area of ​​$59.27-58.50, which includes the swing low of $58.83. The market is currently in a tug of war between news-driven short-term trading and oversupply concerns.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on November 13, 2025

17:00IEA releases monthly crude oil market report

18:00Eurozone September industrial output monthly rate

21:30 The annual rate of U.S. CPI before seasonally adjustment in October

21:30 The monthly rate of U.S. CPI after seasonally adjustment in October

21:30 The number of initial jobless claims in the United States in the week to November 8

EIA Cushing crude oil inventory from the United States to the week of November 7 at 01:00 the next day

EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory from the United States to the week of November 7 at 01:00 the next day

01:15 the next dayFed Musallem gave a speech on monetary policy

At 01:20 the next day, Fed Hammaker participated in a fireside chat

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