The U.S. government ends its longest shutdown, and the Fed’s hawkish signal suppresses gold prices! Europe accelerates financial autonomy

On November 14, in early Asian trading on Friday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.24. On Thursday, as the U.S. government reopened, the U.S. dollar index continued to decline, once falling below the 99 mark, and finally closed down 0.29% at 99.18; the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield finally closed at 4.126%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.603 %; Spot gold rose first and then fell. It once rushed above the 4240 mark before the U.S. market, but then fell sharply and gave up all the gains during the day, and finally closed down 0.55%, at $4171.51 per ounce; spot silver finally closed down 1.85%, at $52.27 per ounce. After plummeting 4% in the previous trading day, crude oil prices fluctuated at the bottom. WTI crude oil remained volatile throughout the day, finally closing up 0.12% at US$58.51/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.22% at US$62.57/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.24. The dollar's short-term trend will depend on the quality of upcoming economic data and clarity on the Fed's policy path. The statistical gaps caused by the government shutdown may continue to affect the market's judgment on the health of the U.S. economy and bring uncertainty to exchange rate fluctuations. Technically, the nearest support level for the U.S. dollar index is in the 98.85–99.00 range. If the USD Index manages to close below the 98.85 level, it will head towards the next support level at 98.00–98.15.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1631. European officials are discussing the establishment of a U.S. dollar fund pool to replace the Federal Reserve to reduce dependence on the United States. The Japanese yen continued to weaken, falling to its lowest level against the euro since 1999, despite the Japanese Finance Minister’s announcement. "Verbal warning", but traders expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in December with a probability of only 24%. Technically, a successful test of the resistance level 1.1655-1.1670 will open the way to the next resistance level 1.1760-1.1775.

Sterling: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3139. Reports that Prime Minister Starmer may face a leadership challenge have triggered political tensions before the release of the British fiscal budget. British employment data showed that the unemployment rate was 5% and wage growth was slowing, raising the possibility of a Bank of England interest rate cut in December. to 90%. Technically, GBP/USD breaks through the resistance level of 1.3145–1.3160 and attempts to stabilize above 1.3200. If this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.3250–1.3265 range.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

On Friday in Asia, gold hovered around 4183.22, although the reopening of the US government has resolved short-term uncertainty. , but triggered a chain sell-off of "buying news and selling facts". The 1% drop in gold prices from a three-week high is not an isolated incident, but the result of internal disagreements in the Federal Reserve, stubborn inflation, weak bond markets and global asset rotation resonance. Weak employment is difficult to overcome concerns about inflation, and an interest rate cut in December is likely. The rate fell to 50%, and the rise in real interest rates directly affected the attractiveness of gold. In the short term, the gold bull market faces the risk of cooling down. If the Fed confirms the suspension of easing, investors need to be wary of further selling gold. However, from a long-term perspective, the data vacuum left by the shutdown, the hidden dangers of tariff inflation, and geoeconomic uncertainty will still support the core value of gold as a safe haven asset. The market is at an inflection point, and gold bulls need to wait patiently for clarity on inflation data or the triggering of new risk aversion events before restarting the upward channel.

Technical: Gold's downside is limited. The 20-period simple moving average (SMA) is at $4,150, providing dynamic support as it rises above the 100-period and 200-period simple moving averages, and all three indicators are trending upward, consistent with the dominant bullish trend. At the same time, the momentum indicator weakens above the 100 line, and the relative strength index (RSI) falls from the overbought range., but remained at 67, indicating that buyers are still dominant. As long as gold prices hold the upward 20-period simple moving average, the trend-following bias will remain unchanged, and if buyers defend this range, the magnitude of the pullback is expected to be limited.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Friday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 59.01. The market weighed ongoing concerns about a global supply glut and potential supply disruptions from sanctions on Russia's Lukoil. Markets are simultaneously weighing conflicting signals: ongoing concerns about a global supply glut, on the one hand, and potential supply disruptions from sanctions on Russia's Lukoil, on the other. Investors will continue to focus on the actual impact of upcoming Russian oil sanctions and whether OPEC+ will make output policy adjustments in response. Oil prices are currently in a technical consolidation stage, waiting for clearer directional guidance.

Technical aspect: After oil prices hit US$64.50 at the end of June and US$70.51/barrel in July, they formed successively lower highs and lows until they found support at US$55.96 last month. Recently, oil prices have formed a potential downward channel. After experiencing a significant decline in the previous trading day, oil prices have returned to the area near the center line of the downward channel. They have been significantly suppressed by the downward channel. In the short term, short positions may still dominate. The RSI and MACD on the daily chart are both in negative territory, suggesting that the short-term trend is more likely to go down. On the upside, the first resistance is located at Wednesday's high of $61.06. Oil prices need to recover the previous day's decline before they are expected to further test the 50-day moving average (MA, 61.19). Breaking this point will strengthen the short-term bullish trend and push oil prices to challenge the key resistance of $64.55, where the 200-day moving average is located. On the downside, $58.00 forms an initial support. Once it falls below $56, the short momentum may be further strengthened, and the support level of the October low of $55.96 will once again become the market focus.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on November 14, 2025

21:30 US October retail sales monthly rate

21:30 US October PPI annual rate

21 :30 U.S. monthly PPI rate in October

22:20 Fed Bostic gave a speech

23:00 U.S. monthly www.uniff.orgmercial inventory rate in September

23:05 Fed Schmid gave a speech

23:30 EIA natural gas inventories in the United States for the week to November 7

02:00 the next day Total oil drilling rigs in the United States for the week to November 14

At 03:30 the next day, Fed Logan participated in a furnace Side conversation

Federal Reserve Bostic attended a meeting at 04:20 the next day

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